Piddling future prices

[superfan]

This goes out to all you folks who play futures for the playoffs and especially Bobby Bryde who is supposed to help you make money as the house expert. The best I saw on TB to win the east was on Canbet at 9-1. I also saw them as low as 5-1. Now why in the world would you take such a meager line ? If you just bet on TB and rolled it over from series to series you would clearly make more. Follow the bouncing ball please......

TB on Pinnacle could have been had as low as -108 ( even less on bet 365 )

100 @ -108 = 191 return

now you have 191

ok lets guess they play the Devils in round 2....whats the line ?
I think Devs -200/tb +180 is realistic....but let's go on the side of caution.....lets use +150

191 @ +150= 436 return
(@ +180= 534)
Now they play Ottawa....whats the line ? Gotta be similar or more...lets use +150 but I think more...but again ...caution.....

436 @ +150 = 1090 return...9.9-1
(534 @ 180 = 1495 return...13.95-1)

Now is it possible TB faces other teams?...yes...but who ? Philly or Toronto in round 2 ? They are dogs in those even WITH home ice...It says here playing them this way is a MUCH better way of playing TB...and the beauty is YOU can hedge the 2nd or 3rd series just by STOPPING and not having to lay any vig....making it even LONGER odds. This is how you play futures if you really like a team in the playoffs to make the finals or win it all. Unless you have the prohibitive fave and calculate making less this way. Then by all means, future away, just do it to your advantage

 

Superfan: Thanks. Good stuff.

Some notes: was aware of formula (didn’t spend ALL my time working in/for sports books watching games). Normally when I send out a future I put guidelines on them, knowing that most books don’t bother putting up anything close to fair prices. Have had some success in past (North Stars 100/1 in ‘90, Sharks 600/1 in ‘94, Czechs 25/1 Olympics, and last year Habs 100/1) playing futures, and occasionally have caught some books napping. Case in point was two years ago when with two weeks remaining in season I found the Canucks at 100/1 to win Cup. They were in ninth place fighting for final playoff spot, but what they failed to realize was that Vancouver was only four points out of first place in their division, which –if they won– would lock up home ice at worst for at least one round, giving some value at the 100/1. I ended up getting my original bet back on the final day when Vancouver lost to Edmonton and missed the playoffs.

When I bet I like to play “what if” anticipating who they will play down road, and if I feel there could be some potential upsets, I will look extra hard at the team I like.

Another point for those who like to bet futures is that the time of the bet is important. For instance, betting Tampa Bay at 25/1 to win the Cup today is far more valuable than betting Tampa Bay at 25/1 in October. The time money is tied up should always be taken into consideration.

As for myself, I sometimes sacrifice value. After a great week I like to throw a few bucks on a future ticket, sort of like putting aside money for a rainy day. You will never find a chapter on money management in any of my books, and I like knowing if I hit the skids at least I have some future tickets lying around.

Its certainly not like the old days where guys would actually go out shopping futures (especially in Las Vegas). Most books don’t want to bother checking their futures every day, and many don’t even know how to book them. In most cases LV books put up futures for squares/tourists (love those $50 limits) and, you are right, its rare finding any value these days, and just rolling over the team you like in each series presents better value.

bb

 

[superfan]

Good stuff. I am in Vegas too if you'd like to have lunch or something. Ask Peep about last year when we closed up TSB at 40-1 on the Nets for the East ( still don't know how we got paid) and the Red Wings for 2 max bets at 7/2. In the last 3 years I had the Avs then the wings. Now have Caps to win the East at 66-1. Got it on January 3rd when they were 2 points behind Lightning. Had the Dbacks 2 years ago at 16-1 to win the series. The Twins last year at 5-1 to win the Central. So I love the fututres when the price is right. But all this leads to my question.....

Why take TB at 25-1 to win the Cup when they will be at LEAST 5-1 dogs in Stanley Cup Finals? thats like 5-1 top win the East

Seriously though contact me at shorrsuper62@aol.com